From Fossil Fuels to Green Energy: The U.S.–China Race for Africa’s Rare Earths

 In the 20th century, fossil fuels were the most important source of energy. In the 21st century, however, they are being replaced by lithium, cobalt, nickel, and other rare earth elements — the very minerals that hold the key to technology and the global transition to green energy. As a result, the new power struggles of our century are increasingly fought over these critical resources.

Whoever controls rare earths also controls the trajectory of technology and the world economy. That means regions rich in these minerals — particularly Africa — are likely to witness more conflict and instability in the years ahead.

Today, China dominates this arena. It controls around 95% of the world’s production and supply of rare earths, indispensable for manufacturing magnets used in electric vehicles (EVs) and wind turbines. Roughly two-thirds of the world’s lithium and cobalt are processed in China. Instead of focusing on diamonds or other traditional commodities, Beijing has invested in what it sees as the metals of the future. China refines about 60% of the aluminum used in EV batteries and produces 80% of polysilicon, a key component in solar panels.

Much of this supply chain runs through Africa. China sources the bulk of these minerals from mines in Guinea, Zambia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). After decades of investment in mining projects across the continent, Beijing now holds a near monopoly on the world’s most valuable metals of the 21st century. That monopoly allows it to dictate global prices through exports — a fact that deeply worries other global powers.

The West, in particular, is anxious. Europe is running out of conventional energy resources and urgently needs affordable access to rare earths for its clean energy transition. Yet it finds itself lagging behind China, unsure how to catch up.

---

America’s Answer: The Lobito Corridor and New Mineral Discoveries

For more than twenty years, China has poured money into Africa’s infrastructure, ensuring that it can transport extracted minerals quickly and cheaply. In response, the United States has launched the Lobito Corridor project as its answer to China’s massive Belt and Road Initiative.

While the historic TAZARA railway connects Zambia to the east coast of Africa, the Lobito Corridor links both Zambia and the DRC to Angola’s Atlantic coast. By upgrading this line, Washington hopes to create an alternative export route. Backed by millions of dollars in U.S. government support, the Lobito railway promises to move copper, cobalt, and even agricultural products at five times the speed of existing routes, dramatically reducing costs.

America isn’t stopping there. It is also investing heavily in the search for new mineral deposits. Just weeks ago, KoBold Metals — a mining company backed by Bill Gates — announced the discovery of a massive copper reserve in Zambia.

---

Electric Vehicles: A Market Set to Explode

The demand is staggering. Global EV sales were 3 million in 2020, 6 million in 2021, and 10 million in 2022. BloombergNEF projects sales will hit 27 million in 2026. Some forecasts go further, claiming production could surpass 30 million EVs before 2025.

But this raises a crucial question: Are there enough raw materials to meet such demand?
Experts say no — not yet. Current supplies fall short of what would be required. That is precisely why the U.S., Europe, Russia, and other powers are scrambling for Africa’s mineral wealth, while China accelerates its long-standing projects.

---

More Metals, More Conflict, More Poverty

As the world celebrates the promise of green energy and the benefits of EVs, it often overlooks the harsh reality: achieving these goals requires far more minerals than are currently available. This rush for resources is already amplifying existing problems.

Wars and unrest in Africa are likely to intensify. Mining brings air and water pollution, deforestation, ecosystem destruction, and health hazards for communities forced to live and work near toxic sites. Child labor and exploitation remain rampant. Can we really call it “clean energy” when it is built on such suffering?

Africa’s mineral wealth has long been a curse rather than a blessing. In country after country, foreign-backed warlords and dictators fuel conflicts that leave ordinary people impoverished in their own resource-rich homelands. Meanwhile, nations with far smaller reserves — such as Canada, with only 1% of global copper — manage to profit handsomely without facing Africa’s endless cycle of violence and exploitation.

Western media has even gone so far as to publish articles with headlines like “The war in Congo helps keep the planet cool,” openly admitting the lack of value it places on African lives.

Look at the human tragedy unfolding in resource-rich countries like the DRC and Sudan: endless war, displacement, and death — all driven by the greed of global powers.

As the privileged parts of the world enjoy cutting-edge technologies, EVs, and the comfort of “green” lifestyles, hundreds of thousands of Africans continue to die from hunger, disease, and conflict.

The question is: do we have an honest answer for them?

 

Sources:

1. Reuters – Western miners seek premium pricing…
2. Wall Street Journal – China Controls Minerals That Run the World
3. Wilson Center – Examining China’s Impact on Mining in Africa
4. Investigate Europe – The Green Transition and Its Mining Dilemma

 This article was originally published in Independent Türkçe, on March 13, 2024.