Tanzania: The End of Silent Stability?

Tanzania, long known as East Africa's "beacon of peace and stability," is now grappling with one of the deepest political crises in its history.

The streets of Dar es Salaam, where I peacefully walked just in 2024, are now overflowing with anger and chaos. The Tanzanian people I knew for their gentle demeanor have raised their voices in the streets during the election process that culminated on October 29, 2025, now shadowed by violence. I haven't heard from friends for days; with internet services cut, I can't reach anyone, unable to know if they are safe.

The trigger for this crisis was the ruling party's move to systematically sideline the opposition. Key figures from CHADEMA were controversially disqualified from the race by a court ruling, fundamentally shattering public trust in the ballot box.

Claiming their path to fair participation was blocked, opposition parties took to the streets. Peaceful protests, met with a heavy-handed security response, turned into clashes. Dozens, and by some accounts, hundreds, are reported to have lost their lives.

However, some witnesses on the ground and local sources suggest that criminal elements and provocateurs with external links infiltrated the protests, allegedly using looting and arson to overshadow the people's legitimate demands. This situation provided grounds for the security forces' harsh crackdown, while also making it difficult to distinguish between peaceful demonstrators and those causing chaos.

In this chaotic atmosphere, the official results from the ensuing election declared the candidate of the long-ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) – incumbent President Samia Suluhu Hassan – the winner with over 98% of the vote. With the opposition disqualified, Hassan ran virtually unopposed. The limited access granted to international observers and independent media during the vote-counting process further stripped an already dubious election of any remaining transparency.

From "Mama Tanzania" to the "Idi Amin Mama" Perception

The rising anger on the streets and social media has shattered Samia's 'Mother of Tanzania' image. The chant that has become a refrain among protesters – 'Idi Amin Mama' (a mother acting like Idi Amin) – is the most striking expression of this disappointment. While this comparison doesn't mean she employs violence on the scale of the infamous Ugandan leader, it is widely interpreted as a clear sign of her increasingly authoritarian style of governance.

Her being a woman did not make her more just or compassionate. On the contrary, she has skillfully wielded all the tools of male-dominated politics to consolidate her power.

How did a leader, once embraced as 'Mama Tanzania' with her calm and inclusive demeanor sparking hope across the continent, become the streets' 'Idi Amin Mama'?

Supporters of Samia's administration argue that underlying the criticism and protests against her are biases rooted in her identity as a Muslim woman leader from Zanzibar. It can be acknowledged that this claim might hold some truth for certain opposition circles. However, behind this transformation lie much deeper structural issues beyond identity politics: Tanzania's historical impasses and festering economic inequalities.

In the Shadow of Stability

Since gaining independence in 1961, Tanzania, under founding father Julius Nyerere's peaceful legacy, was for decades a symbol of stability. The early years, shaped by Nyerere's "Ujamaa" (African socialism) philosophy, fostered a strong sense of national identity and solidarity. Yet, this model gradually suppressed individual enterprise and pluralism in favor of one-party rule. Nyerere's socialist legacy eventually gave way to a bureaucratic party system.

Although multi-party politics was introduced in 1992, the "multi-party" aspect never translated into a genuine possibility of power alternation. The CCM, through its control of state institutions and media, controversial electoral practices, and strategies to neutralize opposition, emerged victorious from every election. The Tanzanian people seemed to have accepted that the price of stability was political "silence."

Religious and Ethnic Balance

With a population approaching 70 million, Tanzania is home to over 120 ethnic groups and a multi-religious society. Despite this diversity, the absence of major ethnic or sectarian conflict is a success of the "we are Tanzanians first" ethos maintained since Nyerere. However, while preserving national unity by proscribing the politicization of ethnic identities, this model also weakened the political representation of different identity groups.

It is within this delicate balance that Samia Suluhu Hassan's rise held particular significance. As a leader of Zanzibari origin, Muslim, and a woman, it was thought she would be a voice for both the coastal regions and women. Initially embraced by the people as "Mama Tanzania," Samia underwent an unexpected transformation over time.

Shattered Hopes

The sudden death of President John Magufuli in 2021 was an unexpected turning point for Tanzania. Succeeding Magufuli, known as the "Bulldozer President" for his anti-Western rhetoric, Samia Suluhu Hassan, the country's first female leader, sparked a wave of hope not just in Tanzania but across Africa.

But expectations soon gave way to disappointment. Samia's leadership evolved into a form of authoritarianism – softly spoken, yet one that further entrenched the repressive mechanisms of the Magufuli era.

The Hassan administration failed to deliver the promised economic prosperity to society.

The Paradox Between Economic Growth and Societal Explosion

Tanzania has recently stood out as one of Africa's fastest-growing economies. Tourism, mining, energy, and port operations bring significant capital inflow. Yet, this macroeconomic success hasn't trickled down to the broader society.

The wealthiest 10% take home over 30% of the national income, while the bottom 40% receive less than 16%. Coastal regions (especially Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar) have an average income level twice as high as the inland regions. Youth unemployment exceeds 35% in Arusha and Dodoma, while it hovers around 20% in coastal cities.

Although tourism and mining generate millions, the revenues largely remain with foreign companies, and the local population sees almost no share of this pie. Revenues from gold and diamonds are largely controlled by foreign corporations. Actors like China, the UAE, and the Aga Khan Foundation are prominent as the invisible architects of the country's economic order.

Samia's government did not provide solutions to these structural inequalities. On the contrary, it embraced the economic model inherited from previous administrations and pushed it even further. Indeed, projects like EACOP (the France-backed Uganda-Tanzania crude oil pipeline) and the port management deals with the UAE's DP World, which gained final approval and momentum under her watch, are among the most controversial, fueling the public narrative that "the country's resources are being sold." When prosperity is promised but justice is denied, even the most patient societies cannot remain silent.

From Reformist Rhetoric to a Regime of Repression

Yet, Samia's initial months were genuinely promising: she partially lifted media bans, freed imprisoned opposition figures, and softened relations with the West. She launched programs for women entrepreneurs and re-engaged with the IMF and World Bank. Dar es Salaam was back on investors' radar.

However, Samia's reformist rhetoric quickly faded. High taxes, persistent poverty, rising youth unemployment, and deepening regional inequalities showed that economic growth only served the elites. Repression soon returned; journalists were arrested, rallies banned. Ahead of the 2025 elections, all levels of the state were reconfigured to favor the CCM. On the same day she criticized protests in Kenya while emphasizing "respect for democracy," she shut down internet access in her own country.

International Silence

Opposition leader Tundu Lissu's pre-election statement that he "preferred to remain in prison" was enough to capture the picture of Tanzania's political climate. But the silence from the international arena in the face of this internal crisis was as striking as the domestic repression.

Regional bodies like the African Union and SADC hid behind their traditional policy of "non-interference in internal affairs." More notably, Western capitals offered little significant reaction. Behind this silence lie the strategic partnerships the Samia Suluhu Hassan administration deepened with Western companies and institutions.

Shell and TotalEnergies are partners in the massive EACOP pipeline project, which received its final approval under her tenure. Port management deals were signed with DP World, long-standing tax disputes with mining giants like Barrick Gold were softened. The IMF and World Bank, meanwhile, were content with normalizing relations strained during the Magufuli era.

For the West, the definition of 'stability' had changed: it now meant the uninterrupted continuation of billion-dollar investments and energy supply security, more than democracy and human rights. Hence, tepid calls for "transparency," staying within diplomatic niceties, took precedence over the Tanzanian people's demand for democracy. The silence was not a policy choice but a result of economic interest calculations.

The Awakening of African Youth

The anger spilling onto Tanzania's streets today is the cry of a people wanting to determine their own destiny. This anger is not a blind rebellion; it's a demand for justice, opportunity, and integrity.

It's not just in Tanzania; across Africa, young people are taking to the streets. In countries like Cameroon, Kenya, Morocco, and Madagascar, the younger generation is no longer accepting corruption, unemployment, and repressive governance. Even if these protests don't directly change election outcomes, they serve as a serious early warning system for Africa's authoritarian leaders.

Zambia, another of the continent's 'peace exemplars,' should closely watch the process unfolding in Tanzania. Hakainde Hichilema (HH), elected with great hope in 2021, initially promised democracy and economic reform. But corruption allegations, the high cost of living, and repressive practices are exhausting public patience. If the 2026 election process is marred by irregularities, Zambian youth appear ready to follow their Tanzanian peers into the streets.

The message from the youth on the streets is clear: the "silent majority" you imagined can now organize through digital communication and articulate their demands plainly.

Of course, there are groups that infiltrate these resistance movements, seeking to exploit the people's legitimate anger for their own gain. But this should not be used as a pretext to overshadow the African youth's quest for justice. The youth want to build the continent's future themselves.

Tanzania is passing through a dark tunnel today, but there is light at the end: no one is willing to accept silence in the name of stability anymore.

Originally published on Wajtürk, on November 6,2025.

https://www.wajturk.com/tanzanya-sessiz-istikrarin-sonu-mu/